Dakota Storm Center: Wednesday's Weather Blog

10:00pm

Overview

A low pressure system is over the Central Plains & Midwest. This system will continue to move East & SE, away from the Dakotas. Through the Ohio River valley & Great Lakes region, there is a slight risk for severe weather with a chance for flash flooding. A ridge of high pressure will build in the wake of this system.

Discussion

Across the area we have been seeing partly to mostly cloudy skies with very little rain on radar for most of the state. Cloud cover is continuing to thin out and the little bit of rain that lingered on radar is moving away from our area. Daytime highs ranged from the lower 60s to 90 degrees. Sidney, MT was the warm spot on the map. Temps were slightly below the seasonal average. In Bismarck and Mandan there was a high of 73 with a low of 59. In Dickinson the high was 71 and the low was 50.

During the 24-36 hours, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Dakotas. This will lead to extremely low rain chances until our next system develops and moves into the area. We will see plenty of sunshine with a few in & out clouds tonight through early Friday. During this time a low pressure system will develop over the Pacific- Northwest and move across the Rockies. This same system will re-develop on the lee side of the Rockies, before moving through our area. By early Friday, we will start to see increasing clouds. This cloud cover will come and go through the day with a few scattered showers & thunderstorms possible. Friday night, this low pressure system will move through Western & Central North Dakota. Due to Friday's daytime heating, the environment over our area will become conducive for thunderstorm activity and it will be very unstable. The higher temperatures climb on Friday, the more significant thunderstorm development is expected. If everything lines up just right, we may be looking at the potential for another severe weather outbreak.

Latest Model Run for Friday 6/24

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for Friday

In the wake of this next system and our next chance for severe weather, winds will pick up and become strong with continued chances for showers & thunderstorms through the day on Saturday. Sunday, the chance for showers & thunderstorms will start to taper off (south to north) as the low pressure system moves into Canada and away from the Dakotas. After Friday night's front, temps will fall into a more seasonable range while winds become strong. Upper 70s and lower 80s will be expected through the beginning of the work week.

Headlines include plenty of sunshine under a ridge of high pressure. We will see clearing skies tonight, through early Thursday. Temperatures will warm through a seasonable range, becoming hot on Friday. Our next chance for rain & storms will start up as we close out the work week.

Through the rest of tonight & Thursday

We will continue to see clearing skies with wind speeds tapering off. Temperatures will fall back to either side of 50. Before winds calm down, it will be breezy with gusts near 25mph possible. Thursday will bring plenty of sunshine with temperatures warming into a seasonable & pleasantly warm range. Highs will be near 80 with winds swinging around to the SE. Tomorrow will shape up to be a very nice day.

7day planner

We will see clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine through the rest of the work week. By Thursday, expect mostly sunny skies with in & out clouds and seasonable temps. Highs will be on either side of 80 and pleasantly warm. By Friday, it will be hot with rising rain chances, late. Showers & thunderstorms will bring a slight risk for severe weather, for some. This weekend will bring a mixture of sunshine & cloud cover with off/on rain & storm chances and temps topping out in the 70s & lower 80s. Sunday through the beginning of the work week, we will see more sunshine and temps climbing into the 80s, again.

Tonight, expect fair to partly cloudy skies and seasonable temps. Lows will be on either side of 50 with NE winds 5-15mph G25.

Thursday, expect plenty of sunshine with in & out light clouds and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs will be seasonable and on either side of 80 with a NE/SE wind 2-12mph.

Thursday night, we will see mostly clear skies with temps in the lower 60s and a light to moderate wind out of the SE, 2-10 mph.

Friday will bring with it more sunshine and some light cloud cover, early. It will become hot followed by more clouds and PM chances for showers & thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s with a SE/South wind 5-15mph G20 and Heat Index values 95-100.

Friday night, expect increasing clouds and rising chances for showers & thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s with a light wind out of the South. Some of the thunderstorms may become severe. 30% chance for rain.