Dakota Storm Center: Monday's Weather Blog

11:00pm

Overview

There is a cold front stretched from Canada, through the Great Lakes region & Ohio River valley and into the Central Plains. A ridge of high pressure is stretched over the Northern Plains and upper- Midwest. Another low pressure system will begin to develop over the Northern Plains, on the lee side of the Rockies, tonight & Tuesday.

Discussion

Across the area today we have been seeing plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures that will continue through the beginning of the work week. Today is the Summer Solstice of 2016. The day when the sun is furthest away from the earth and we have the most daylight hours. Today was 15 hours & 52mins long. After today, every day will get shorter & shorter until the Winter Solstice. Today is also the first full moon of 2016 this is the "Strawberry Moon" and it happens rarely. The next one will be in 2062 and the most recent one was in 1967.

Tonight's "Strawberry Moon"

Daytime highs ranged from the mid 70s through the mid 80s. The warm spot on the map was Buffalo at 86 and the cool spot was Devils Lake at 75. In Bismarck and Mandan there was a high of 80 with a low of 57. In Dickinson the high was 78 and the low was 47.

A low pressure system will begin to develop over Montana & Wyoming, tonight & tomorrow. This will be our next weather maker for the Dakotas. Until then, our area will remain under the influence of a ridge of high pressure. Plenty of sunshine with warming temperatures will continue through the midday & early afternoon hours, tomorrow. Late on Tuesday, temps will climb into an unseasonably warm range with a few areas topping out on either side of 90 before more clouds start to roll in.

Thunderstorm activity will begin to develop over Northwest ND, with this system. At this point, model guidance is not pointing to widespread thunderstorm development. Though they have been a little back & forth on placement and intensity, these models are pointing to some of the developing storms to become strong. There will be a slight risk for severe weather for Western & Central ND.

Tuesday Night's Cold Front from the latest run of our in-house model (RPM_4km).

This means scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible. Short-lived intense storms will be possible but should not become widespread. One or two tornadoes will be possible and I am expecting some reports of strong winds and wind damage. Hail will be around one inch for some with isolated storms producing 2" hail.

Slight Risk For Severe Weather was issued by the SPC (Storm Prediction Center).

Headlines include our next chance for rain, Tuesday night. Expect increasing clouds, late tomorrow. Tuesday night, rain chances will become likely as a system moves through the area. Thunderstorms will develop to a slight risk for severe weather. Though we will see slightly cooler temperatures Wednesday, daytime highs will fall to near average for this time of the year.

Through the rest of tonight & Tuesday

We will continue to see fair to partly cloudy skies with in & out clouds and light winds tonight. It will feel mild and very pleasant. Tomorrow will start off with abundant sunshine, followed by temps climbing above the seasonable norm. Late in the day, showers & thunderstorms will begin to develop with a risk of becoming severe overnight.

Tuesday's Hour By Hour Planner

7day planner

Across the area we have been seeing plenty of sunshine with temperatures above average, as summer begins today. Mostly clear skies and warm temps will continue with more clouds rolling in, late on Tuesday. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, our next system will bring a chance for showers & thunderstorms with a slight risk for severe weather. In the wake of this system, we will see temps fall into the 70s and stronger winds Wednesday. The end of the work week will bring more sunshine, warming temps and dry conditions until late on Friday. A weekend cold front will bring a second round of high rain chances to the forecast.

Tonight we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with low rain chances and a mild feel. Lows will be in the 50s with a light NW wind swinging around to the East.

Tuesday will start off with plenty of sunshine with temperatures well above average for this time of the year. Clouds will begin to roll in late, followed by rising rain chances. Highs in the 80s with a few 90s and an East/SE wind 5-15mph.

Tuesday night, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and a likely chance for showers & thunderstorms as a system moves through the Dakotas. This system will bring a slight risk for severe weather as it moves through the area. Lows will be on either side of 60 with an East/SW wind 5-15mph G20 and a 60% chance for rain.

Wednesday will bring tapering rain chances and a brief cool down for some, followed by clearing skies. Highs will range from the upper 60s through the mid 80s with a moderate to strong wind out of the SW/NW that will be gusty at times. 20% chance for rain.

Wednesday night, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with light winds out of the North. Lows will be in the 50s with a few 40s possible and NE winds will be light.