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Friday, February 12, 2016

Friday's Weather Blog

Overview
There is a weak low pressure system over the Great Lakes region & NE U.S. that is continuing to bring scattered snow to much of the mid & north Atlantic seaboard and the Great Lakes region. A stationary front is stretched south through the Northern Plains and just west of our area. 

Discussion
The stationary front to our West will transition to a warm front and move across North Dakota. This system will come in two waves, the first of which is moving through Western ND tonight. Scattered snow showers will move through the state West to East with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the single digits. Winds will become light to moderate and remain breezy through the day tomorrow. The second wave of this system will move through the state during the afternoon & evening hours, Saturday.

The second wave of this system will be the part of the front that will bring the highest snowfall accumulation. The tricky part of this system revolves around the temperature in determining when and where it is snow vs rain/mix. Western ND will see more rain and wintry mix where as Central & Eastern ND will mostly see mostly snow. By the end of the event, a light to moderate accumulation is expected across our viewing area. Highest accumulations will bein the SE corner of the state. For the most part, 1"-4" of new snow is expected through our area scattered locations may see 6"+. Along the Western & Northern sides of the state, many will see less than 1" of accumulation.

In the wake of this system, temperatures will climb into an unseasonably warm range as a warmer air mass moves across the Dakotas. Temperatures will climb through the 30s & into the 40s Sunday with some clearing. Through the beginning of the work week, temperatures will remain mild until a weak cold front brings another chance for light snow Monday night & Tuesday.

Through the rest of tonight & Saturday
Overnight we will see rising snow chances as light scattered snow moves through the area. This first round of snow will continue through the morning hours. Temperatures tonight will fall through the single digits and below zero for much of our area. A light to moderate wind will make it feel much cooler than it is and well below zero. Tomorrow will bring a second and more significant round of snow/mix through the afternoon & evening hours. Rain/Mix will mostly be on the Western side of the state. Central & Eastern ND will see 2"-6" of new snow. Temperatures will top out in the 20s & 30s with a moderate wind that will be gusty and make it feel like it is still on either side of zero. 

7day planner
Tonight through Saturday night, a warm front will bring light to moderate snowfall accumulations to much of Central & Eastern ND. In the wake of this system, expect warmer temps and mild conditions coming back into the forecast through the beginning of the work week. By Monday night & Tuesday we will see another chance for light snow followed by cooler temps, briefly.

Tonight, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with increasing cover and rising snow chances, in advance of our next warm front. Lows on either side of zero with a SE wind 5-15mph becoming gusty at times. Chills will be below zero and in the negative teens. 40% chance for snow


Saturday, cloudy skies with a chance for scattered AM snow followed by a higher chance for a mix/snow through the afternoon and evening. Highs in the 20s and winds picking up to 10-20mph gusting to 30, out of the SE. Chills around zero through most of the day. 60% chance for snow/mix


Saturday night, early snow chances will taper off, followed by gradual clearing and warming temperatures. Lows in the teens & 20s with a light to moderate wind swinging around to the NW and chills in the single digits & teens.


Sunday, clearing skies revealing plenty of sunshine and continued warming temperatures. Highs 37-44 with a moderate wind out of the NW & West becoming gusty at times.


Sunday night, fair to partly cloudy skies and mile. Lows in the 20s with a light to moderate wind out of the SE becoming West and chills in the teens.


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