Dakota Storm Center: Thursday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview

There is a ridge of high pressure over the SE U.S. & SW U.S. A stationary front is stretched south through the Northern & Central Plains. Another ridge of high pressure is over Canada & the Great Lakes region.

Discussion

A stationary front that is stretched through the Central & Northern plains will give way to a broad ridge of high pressure (over Canada) that is associated with a cold air mass. Tonight & Friday we will see gradually clearing skies and temperatures falling through the 20s & teens as a colder air mass moves over the Dakotas. As skies clear out, temperatures will fall even faster. Through the day Friday, temperatures will continue to fall and will peak at Midnight, tonight. Cold Air Advection will trump daytime heating and afternoon temperatures will climb back into the teens before continuing to fall to either side of zero. By Friday night we will also see the approach of our next warm front. It will come in two phases. Tomorrow evening & Friday night, we will see increasing clouds with a chance for scattered snow, after Midnight. A line of scattered snow will be stretched North to South across the Dakotas and move West to East through the morning hours. By Saturday afternoon, the second round of precip will be moving into Western, ND from East Montana. Rain will transition to a wintry mix & finally snow (West to East) through Saturday afternoon & evening. This second round will begin to clear Eastern ND after Midnight Sunday morning.

Friday Night/Saturday Morning Snow (4km RPM Model Guidance)

Currently, long range models are pointing to a light to moderate snowfall with our weekend warm front. The latest run of the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model is hinting at 8"-12" for Bismarck/Mandan. Keep in mind that these numbers are the outliers and may be "out to lunch". The same model shows that the rest of our area will see 1"-3" Saturday through Saturday night. Nevertheless, I will keep an eye on this weekend system. Right now I am calling 1"-4" (lower to the West & higher totals to the East) with 4+ in the SE corner of the state.

Through the rest of tonight & Friday

Expect tapering snow chances, gradually clearing skies and temperatures falling well into the teens. Lows will be in the teens & single digits with light winds out of the North. Tomorrow will bring continued early clearing as temps continue to fall. By tomorrow afternoon and through the evening, we will see increasing clouds followed by rising snow chances as our next warm front moves through the Northern Plains and into the Dakotas Saturday. In the wake of this next chance for snow, our active weather pattern will begin to simmer down. Mild temperatures will return to our weather headlines and temperatures will be well above average through the beginning of the work week.

7day planner

A cold front will move through the area this evening & tonight, with clearing skies & cooler temps to wrap up the work week. By Saturday & Sunday, a warm front will bring our next chance for snow followed by warmer temps through the beginning of the work week.

Tonight, mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow chances tapering off and skies beginning to clear as a cold front moves into the Dakotas. Lows 3-15 with NE winds 5-15mph and chills in the single digits & below zero. 20% chance for snow.

Friday, expect continued clearing, revealing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the teens with temps continuing to fall through the day and a NE wind 2-12mph, becoming gusty at times.

Friday Night, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with increasing cover and a chance for light snow, in advance of our next warm front. Lows in the single digits with a SE wind 5-15mph becoming gusty at times. Chills will be below zero and in the negative teens. 20% chance for snow

Saturday, cloudy skies with a chance for scattered AM snow followed by a higher chance for a mix/snow through the afternoon and evening. Highs 17-24 and winds picking up to 10-20mph Gusting to 30, out of the SE. Chills below zero through most of the day. 60% chance for snow/mix

Saturday night, early snow chances will taper off, followed by gradual clearing and winds beginning to calm down. Lows in the teens with a light to moderate wind out of the South and chills in the single digits & teens.