Dakota Storm Center: Friday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview

There is a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region. A cold front is stretched through the Ohio River valley and into the Southern Plains. This system is producing a risk for severe weather for affected areas. There is a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. A second ridge of high pressure is over the Midwest and extends over the Northern & Central Plains. A second low pressure system is developing over the East Montana/Wyoming border.

Discussion

A ridge of high pressure is over the Midwest & Great Lakes region. The western edge of this high is extended over the Northern Plains. This ridging will slowly give way to an approaching low pressure system. A low that is developing on the lee side of the Rockies will continue to organize over the Northern Plains, before moving West to East through the Dakotas. Tonight, a warm front will move through the area, after midnight. Along this front, expect scattered showers & thunderstorms. Rain chances will be hit & miss and continue through the morning hours.

Through the weekend, this system will gradually move East. In Central & Western North Dakota, we will see several waves of rain & storms. After the warm front moves through our area, we will clearing skies followed by a hotter air mass moving over the Dakotas. This means a couple of things for us. Expect it to feel muggy with temps topping out on either side of 90 (Sat) and even warmer by Sunday. The weekend will bring heat index values to either side of 100, for some. Stay hydrated, use sun screen and if you get tired, seek the shade.

Aside from unseasonably warm temps, winds will swing around to the South & Southeast. This will set up the environment to fuel thunderstorm development. Saturday& Sunday, showers & thunderstorms will move through the state with extended periods of down-time (during the day) between waves of activity. Through the weekend, there will be a risk for severe weather. A low/slight risk, Saturday & a slight risk on Sunday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible. Short- lived/not wide spread & intense storms may occur. Potential hazards include but are not limited to: 1 or 2 tornadoes, reports of strong wind/wind damage & hail around 1" with isolated reports of 2" stones.

In-house model output for Sunday evening thunderstorms (4km_RPM)

Short- term headlines include a little break from an active weather pattern. Expect in & out clouds tonight, and Saturday. A warm front tonight will bring a chance for scattered rain. Saturday & Sunday it will be hot & humid with a chance or more thunderstorms. The weather environment will be primed for scattered thunderstorms to continue to strengthen and possibly become severe.

Through the rest of tonight & this weekend

Tonight, we will see a chance for scattered rain & a few storms with a warm front. Tomorrow & Sunday will be hot & humid. Temps climb well into the 90s and to either side of 100 by Sunday with peak heat index values ranging from 95-105 through the weekend. There will be a chance for rain & storms with a low risk for severe weather, through the weekend. Also, winds will become breezy at times.

7day planner

This weekend a low pressure system will approach our area late Saturday and move through the Dakotas Sunday & Monday. We will see daily rain chances with a risk for severe weather. In the wake of our next chance for rain expect clearing skies (Tuesday night), cooler temps (upper 70s and lower 80s), breezy winds (through Wednesday) & more sunshine. By the end of the work week, another chance for rain is in the forecast.

Tonight, we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with in& out clouds. There will be a few hit & miss showers/storms as a warm front moves through our area, after Midnight. Lows will be on either side of 60 with a light E/SE wind 2-12mph.

Saturday, expect mostly sunny skies with in & out cover and winds becoming breezy for some. In advance of our next system, there will be a few late showers & thunderstorms (West). It will be hot & humid with highs in the 80s & 90s and a SE wind 10-20mph G30. Heat index values 95-100.

Saturday night will bring with it, partly to mostly cloudy skies with in & out cover, a muggy feel and scattered showers & thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s with a SE wind 5-15mph G20.

Sunday, expect another hot & humid day with mostly sunny skies at times. Showers & thunderstorms will develop and increase with a risk for severe weather. Highs in the 90s with a moderate SE/West wind 10-20mph G30. Heat index values 100-105.

Sunday night will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies with continued scattered rain & storms possible. Lows will be in the 60s & 70s with a SE/W winds 10-20mph G30 and a muggy feel.