Dakota Storm Center: Wednesday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview

There is a broad ridge of high pressure that expands across most of the Eastern half of the nation. The Northeast U.S. will see some rain. A low pressure system is over Florida. Another low pressure system continues to develop over the Northern Plains with a stationary front that stretches south, through the Central & Southern Plains.

Discussion

Across the area today we have been seeing mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with in & out cover and a few light showers. Winds have been light to moderate and a little breezy for some. Today, temps topped out in the 80s across Central & Western North Dakota. On the eastern side of the state, highs were on either side of 80. The warm spot on the map was Sidney at 91 and the cool spot was Grand Forks & Devils Lake at 79.

A low pressure system will continue to develop to our west. Tonight & tomorrow, this system will move East, through Montana/Wyoming and into the Dakotas. So, we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with mild conditions to start things off. Through the day, plenty of sunshine will lead to temperatures climbing into a Hot range. Mid to upper 90s are expected across Central & Western, ND. A few temps reaching the triple digits is not out of the question. This abundant heating will bring more instability to our atmosphere. The approaching system and cold front will continue to develop, gaining strength as it moves closer to the Dakotas. Thunderstorms (associated with the approaching cold front) will start to move into our area between 7pm & 9pm. Some of this thunderstorm activity may become severe. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has put parts of our state under a Marginal (low) risk for severe weather. This means that a few isolated storms may become severe. Our main threats include areas of heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds (40-60mph) and hail (up to 1 inch). The good news for our area is that as these storms move in, it will be after the day's peak heating hours. So, the sun will begin to set, and this should choke some of the thunderstorm activity out. Nevertheless, a line of rain & storms will move through Western & Central North Dakota through the early morning hours.

In-house model guidance (4km_RPM) showing Thursday Night's front.

This cold front will not affect temperatures very much. Highs will be well into the 90s tomorrow and fall to either side of 90 Friday through Sunday. With 3 (or more) back to back days of temps near or above 90, we will be in a heat wave. High temps + more humidity will lead to significant Heat Index Values. It will feel 5-10 degrees warmer than it actually is. A second cold front will move through our area Sunday night & Monday. This second system will bring more rain and thunderstorms through the region before knocking temps back into the 80s.

Headlines include a few changes through our short term forecast. We will see in & out clouds until a warm front moves through the area. A continued hot temps are forecast through the next couple of days. By the end of the work week, temps will top out in the 90s. Rain chances are expected Thursday night.

Through the rest of tonight & Thursday

Overnight, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with in & out clouds. Temperatures will fall to either side of 60 and into a mild range. It will also feel a little muggy with dewpoints climbing into the 60s making some haze possible, after Midnight. Winds will remain light to moderate tonight & tomorrow. In the wake of today's passing warm front, temps will continue to climb well into the 90s and well above average for this time of the year. It will feel hot and heat index values will be in play, making it feel 5-10 degrees above the actual temperature. Late Thursday, we will see increasing clouds followed by rising chances for shower & thunderstorm activity as a cold front moves through our area.

7day planner

The next 24 hours will bring in & out clouds with temperatures climbing into the 90s tomorrow. Thursday night / Friday morning, our first cold front will move through our area bringing a likely chance for showers & thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorm activity will become strong and possibly severe. In the wake of this cold front, temps will not dip too much. Highs will remain in the upper 80s & lower 90s as we go into the weekend. A second system will move through the region Sunday / Monday with more thunderstorm activity, followed by a brief period of temps topping out in the 80s through the latter half of the 7day planner.

Tonight, temps will be mild and it will feel a little muggy with a few scattered showers fizzling out. Lows will be on either side of 60 with a SE wind 2-10mph.

Thursday, temperatures will climb well above average and it will feel slightly warmer than it actually is. Through the late afternoon & evening, we will see increasing clouds followed by rain chances. Highs will be in the 90s with a SE/South wind 5-15mph G20. 20% chance for rain, late.

Thursday night, partly to mostly cloudy skies with rising chances for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system & front moves through the area. This system will bring a low risk for severe weather as it moves West to East through the state. Lows in the 60s with a South/NW wind 5-15mph. 60% chance for rain.

Friday, expect clearing skies early revealing plenty of sunshine. There will be some in & out cloud cover with temps becoming hot again. Highs on either side of 90 with a North/NE wind 2-12mph.

Friday night, expect another round of above average temps with a muggy feel and mostly clear skies. Lows in the 60s with a light wind out of the East.