Dakota Storm Center: Tuesday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview

There is a cold front stretched south, along the Atlantic coastline and into the Southeast U.S. There is also a developing low pressure system over the Northern Plains. This system will move through our area during the next couple of days. A broad ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the Midwest, Great Lakes region & Ohio River valley. This same ridge is expanded west, over the Dakotas.

The remnants post- tropical cyclone Colin are picking up a lot of speed while moving along a cold front that is just off of the East Coast.

Discussion
Across the area today we have been seeing a mixture of sunshine & cloud cover with no rain and light to moderate winds. Today, temps topped out in the 70s & 80s across Central & Western North Dakota. Through the eastern side of the state, temps climbed to either side of 70 with a few areas not getting out of the 60s. The warm spot on the map was Sidney at 88 and the cool spot was Grand Forks & Devils Lake at 69. In Bismarck there was a high of 77 and a low of 46. In Dickinson, a high of 77 and a low of 45. Temperatures were near average for this time of the year.

A ridge of high pressure that is extended over our area will give way to a system that continues to develop, to our west. We will see this low pressure system strengthen a little bit before it gets here. Tomorrow, a warm front will move through our area bringing more clouds and some scattered rain with a few thunderstorms possible. The second half of this system will move through late on Thursday with more wide-spread rain and a chance for scattered thunderstorms.

Some of these thunderstorms could become strong and at this point the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has put our area under a Marginal (low) risk for severe weather. This means that it could happen but most of the thunderstorm activity will not be developed enough to prompt many warnings. There will be a risk for isolated severe thunderstorms that will be limited in duration, coverage and/or intensity. At this point our main threats include some areas of heavy rain, frequent lightning, strong winds (40-60mph) and possible hail (up to 1") with a low tornado risk. The good news for us is that the second wave of this system will move into our area Thursday evening and across North Dakota, Thursday night. So, most of the activity will be after peak heating and this will probably choke any significant cells out as the sun goes down. Nevertheless, showers & thunderstorms are expected Thursday and a few of them may become severe.

Headlines include a few changes through our short term forecast. We will see in & out clouds until a warm front moves through the area. A continued warming trend is forecast through the next couple of days. By the end of the work week, temps will top out in the 90s. Off/on rain chances will return Wednesday & Thursday.

Through the rest of tonight & Wednesday

Overnight we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with a pleasant feel and some cloud cover coming & going. Winds will be light to moderate and out of the South & East. By Wednesday morning temps will be mild, above average and in the 50s. Through the day, more warming is expected with temps climbing well into the 80s with in & out clouds and a chance for hit & miss rain with a few thunderstorms possible. Temps tomorrow will be well above average for this time of the year and it will feel a little muggy.

7day planner

Expect a warming trend with temps becoming hot and rain chances turning back on, through the rest of the week. A ridge of high pressure is expanded across the Dakotas & upper- Midwest. A low pressure system continues to develop to our North & West with a warm front that will play a role in our forecast during the next couple of days. Tomorrow a warm front will start to affect our area, bringing low rain chances with temperatures climbing well into the 80s. This warm front will slow down over the Dakotas. Temperatures will climb into the 90s by the end of the work week. Off/on rain chances will continue Thursday and into the weekend as our quiet weather pattern becomes a little more active. Friday & Saturday a weak cold front will move through our area as another system develops over Montana/Wyoming. This second system will move through our area Sunday & Monday. Though this series of fronts will move through our area, daytime highs will remain in the 80s & 90s, well above average for this time of the year.

Tonight, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with light winds. Lows in the 50s with a SE wind 5-15mph.

Wednesday will bring mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with in & out cover. Scattered showers & a few thunderstorms will be possible as a warm front moves through the state. Highs in the 80s with a few 90s and a SE/South wind 10-20. 20% chance for rain.

Wednesday night will bring partly cloudy skies with in & out cover and a few lingering showers. Lows on either side of 60 with a South wind 2-12mph.

Thursday, temperatures will climb well above average and it will feel slightly warmer than it actually is. There will be a chance for scattered rain with a few thunderstorms possible as a stalled out front lingers over the area. Highs in the 90s with a SE/South wind 5-15mph G20. 20% chance for rain.

Thursday night, fair to partly cloudy skies with scattered rain chances tapering off and a mild feel. Lows in the 60s with a South/East wind 5-15mph. 30% chance for rain.