9:00pm
Overview
There is a broad ridge of high pressure over the Midwest that stretches into the plains and extends across the Great Lakes region and Ohio River valley. A low pressure system is over the Virginias with a cold front stretched through the Southeast U.S. and back into the Central Plains where another low continues to develop. This second low pressure system is bringing a likely chance for rain and a risk for severe weather to parts of South Dakota.
Discussion
It has felt pleasant all day with mostly clear skies & light winds. Temps topped out in the 70s & 80s across the state. Bismarck& Mandan got to 83 with a low of 48. In Dickinson, it was not as warm with a high of 79 and a low of 50. the warm area on the map was Southwest ND. Baker& Buffalo reached 89.
Our next significant weather feature will be a cold front, tomorrow. Through the morning & afternoon hours, temperatures will climb through a pleasant range and into the 80s again. Through the afternoon & evening hours, a cold front will move through the state from the north to the south.
A Marginal risk for severe weather means that Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible. These storms will be limited in duration and/or coverage/intensity. If any of the thunderstorms reach severe criteria, they will be at the threshold and should not become long-track storms. Winds are expected to peak at 40-60mph with hail possibly up to 1” and there will be a very low tornado risk. The timing of this system will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, With scattered thunderstorms possible. Because of the low confidence and scattered nature of this system, we will keep everyone updated. Tomorrow will bring an early chance for showers & a few thunderstorms with in & out clouds. After Noon, a weak- Canadian cold front will move North to South through the state.
Headlines continues pleasant conditions this evening and into tonight. Changes are ahead. We will see in & out clouds before a cold front moves through the area Wednesday. This weak system will bring a chance for showers & thunderstorms and a low risk for severe weather.
Through the rest of tonight & Wednesday
Tonight will bring pleasant conditions with more clouds and a chance for scattered rain & a few thunderstorms for parts of Southwest ND. Northwest ND will see a few showers with statewide temps falling into the 50s and it will be a little cool as winds become light. Tuesday, a cold front will bring scattered showers & thunderstorms with a low risk for severe weather and gusty winds for some.
7day planner
We are still under the influence of a ridge of high pressure. This high is centered over the Midwest & slowly moving East & SE, away from the Dakotas. During the next couple of days, it will give way to an approaching (Canadian) cold front. This front will move through our area Wednesday with rising chances for showers & thunderstorms (afternoon & evening hours) after substantial daytime heating. Rain chances from this weak system will be scattered and there will be a low chance for isolated storms to become severe.
Tonight, expect increasing clouds, followed by a chance for scattered AM showers & a few thunderstorms. Lows will be in the 50s with a few 60s and SE winds 2-10mph will become light after Midnight. 20% chance for rain.
Wednesday will bring with it, partly cloudy skies with continued a chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms (mainly after Noon). Highs will be in the 80s for the most part and light winds will be out of the East/North 2-10mph. 40% chance for rain.
Wednesday night, there will be a slight chance for scattered rain (tapering off) with winds picking up a bit. Lows in the 50s & on either side of 60 with a North/East wind 2-12mph, becoming light at times. 30% chance for rain.
Thursday, we will see mostly sunny skies with in & out clouds and slightly cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front. Highs in the 70s with a NE wind 5-15mph.
Thursday night will bring mostly clear skies and a pleasantly cool feel. Lows on either side of 50 with a NE/SE wind 5-15mph.
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