Dakota Storm Center: Thursday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview

There is a strong low pressure system over Southeast Texas and the lower- Mississippi River valley. This system is bringing a risk for severe weather to affected areas. A stationary front stretches East from this system to the Atlantic Ocean. A second low is beginning to develop on the lee side of the Rockies over the Northern Plains. Elsewhere, a broad ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Great Lakes region and is stretched over the Northeast U.S., Ohio River valley, Midwest and into the Central & Northern Plains.

Discussion

Across the area today we saw plenty of sunshine with in & out light clouds. Temperatures climbed through the 70s and into the 80s, topping out above average for this time of the year. The warm area on the map was Northwest, North Dakota. Minot & Williston got up to 84 degrees. This pleasantly warm feel will remain a theme through the next couple of days as temps continue to climb.

A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes region & Ohio River valley is stretched over the Dakotas. As this system drifts to the East, we will start to see more changes in our to our weather. More clouds will roll into the area and there will be a slight chance for afternoon showers. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the next couple of days. Temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s and into the lower to mid 80s for some. This dry and unseasonably warm pattern will be interrupted by a system as it moves through the Northern Plains Saturday night through Monday morning. A low pressure system will re-develop on the lee side of the Rockies. This system will stay to our west Friday & most of Saturday as a strong and broad ridge of high pressure slowly moves East. By Saturday afternoon and overnight, this ridge of high pressure will give way to a stronger/developing low pressure system. During this time, southerly winds will pick up significantly. Friday & Saturday, the strengthening low to our west & strong high to our east will push & pull at each other. This action will allow winds to pick up and become moderate to strong and very gusty for some. I would not be surprised if a few Wind Advisories are issued in parts of our area.

This developing low pressure system will move into the Dakotas late Saturday & Saturday night. At this point, thunderstorm activity will be limited for the first round. By Sunday, thunderstorms will move out of Western ND and through Central & Eastern ND. Both rounds of thunderstorm activity have the potential to become severe. We will continue to monitor this event as we get closer and update everyone as the low approaches our area.

In-house Model Guidance (4km RPM)

Headlines include a ridge of high pressure that will continue to affect our area as it drifts East. We will continue to see plenty of sunshine with in & out light clouds. During the next couple of days, skies will becoming mostly sunny to partly cloudy for some. Showers & thunderstorms are expected through the latter half of the weekend.

Through the rest of tonight & Friday

Expect fair to partly cloudy skies with a few hit & miss showers. Temperatures will fall through the 60s and into the 50s to make a mild feel. Winds will be light to moderate and out of the South & SE. Friday, we will start the day off with a continued mild feel and temps climbing through the 70s and to either side of 80 degrees, again. Winds will be breezy and isolated rain will be possible. Again, not everyone will get wet.

7day planner

A broad ridge of high pressure remains extended over the Dakotas and continuing to drift to the East. Through the next couple of days, temps will continue to gradually climb with a little more cloud cover and a chance for scattered showers with a few thunderstorms, Friday & Saturday. Winds will be moderate to strong and breezy as a low pressure system develops over Montana & Wyoming. This will be our next system that will move through the area Sunday & Monday with a good chance for rain. Scattered thunderstorms will develop and may become strong for some. In the wake of a cold front, we will start the work week off with tapering rain chances and some clearing. Despite some rain chances, next week will be very nice with highs in the 70s and still above average for this time of the year.

Tonight, we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with a mild feel and winds remaining breezy. Lows 49-57 with a SE wind 5-15mph G20.

Friday will bring mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with unseasonably warm temperatures and a few hit & miss showers. A few thunderstorms will be possible, as well. Highs in the 70s with a few 80s on the map and a SE wind 10-20mph G30.

Friday night will be mild with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows in the 50s with a moderate & gusty wind out of the SE 5-15mph G20.

Saturday, will be warm with more clouds and a rising chance for scattered showers & thunderstorms, late. Highs on either side of 80 with a SE/South wind 15-25mph.

Saturday night, partly to mostly cloudy skies with rising rain chances. Showers & thunderstorms will move through the area with a low risk for severe weather and It will be muggy for some. Lows on either side of 60 with a South wind 5-15mph G20.