Dakota Storm Center: Friday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

A Fire Weather (Red Flag) Watch has been issued for parts of Western ND through Saturday evening (8:00pm mdt).

Sustained Westerly winds of 20-30 mph are expected through the afternoon hours, coupled with extremely low relative humidity values of 15-20%. Max temps will range through the 60s & 70s leading to unseasonably warm and very dry conditions with high winds across the area.

The Fire Weather Watch includes the following counties:
Stark, Williams, Adams, Hettinger, Bowman, Slope, Golden Valley, Billings, Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, Burke & Divide counties.

Overview

There is a low pressure system over the Ohio River valley & NE U.S. This system will continue to move East as it fizzles out. Another low pressure system is developing over the SW U.S. A third low is just north of the Pacific NW with a warm front stretched north to south on the lee side of the Rockies. Meanwhile a ridge of high pressure is over the Northern Plains and SE U.S.

Discussion

Today we saw plenty of sunshine with a few in & out light clouds. Winds were light to moderate and out of the North and Northeast. Temperatures have been slightly cooler than the seasonable norm, but warmer temps are ahead. Highs were mainly in the 40s with a few 50s in Western ND. The Eastern side of our state reached into the 30s.

Across the Northern Plains, there is a broad ridge of high pressure stretched over the Dakotas. To our Northwest, there is a low pressure system over Canada. A warm front will move through Western ND early Saturday & a cold front will cross our area late on Saturday. This passive system will not bring much in the way of rain chances. However, winds will become breezy through the weekend with a spike in temperatures, tomorrow. Warm temps coupled with extremely low humidity values (dry air) and moderate to strong winds will lead to an elevated risk for fire weather. So, a Fire Weather Watch was issued today for parts of the area and I would not be surprised to see a series of Fire Weather (Red Flag) Warnings on Saturday. This will be the most active part of our short term forecast and the biggest threat is the fire danger through the day, tomorrow. In the wake of a cold front (associated with the same system) temperatures will fall back into a seasonable range Sunday & Monday. Tuesday (through the rest of the work week) expect a gradual warming trend, bringing temps back into the 70s, Wednesday through Friday. Our next chance for significant rain is Next Friday.

Headlines include an approaching system that will move through the Dakotas this weekend with little to no precip expected. We will see in and out clouds with a slight chance for light rain/snow showers Saturday night through Sunday morning. Once again warmer temps, drier air & breezy conditions Saturday will lead to an increased fire danger for some.

Through the rest of tonight & Saturday

Expect low rain chances with hit & miss clouds. Tonight, temperatures will fall through the 30s and well into the 20s. Winds will begin to pick back up after Midnight as a warm front moves into the Dakotas. Temperatures will climb into an unseasonably warm range with highs on either side of 70. Some of us will climb well into the 70s. A cold front, associated with this same system will move through the Northern Plains late Saturday through Sunday morning. This cold front will bring cooler air and a slight chance for a few isolated showers.

7day planner

This weekend will bring a relatively quiet weather pattern with warmer temps to go along with more sunshine on Saturday. Sunday and through the beginning of the work week, expect continued sunshine with seasonable temps gradually warming through the 50s & 60s. By the latter half of our 7day planner temps will be well above average again. Only a few systems will move through the Dakotas during the next 7 days (Saturday night & next Friday), but rain chances are still low at this point.

Tonight, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with a cool feel. Lows will be in the 20s with a NE/SE wind 10-20mph (and increasing in speed).

Saturday, expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with in & out clouds and moderate to strong winds returning. Temps will climb into an unseasonably warm range with very dry air over the area. Highs 65-75 with a South wind 15-25mph G35.

Saturday night, we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with in & out clouds and a mild feel. Lows 34-40 with a NW wind 5-15mph. 10% chance for mix showers.

Sunday, expect clearing skies early resulting in plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. Highs will be on either side of 50 with a NW wind 15-25mph G35. 10% chance for mix showers early.

Sunday night will bring with it fair to partly cloudy skies and a chilly feel. Lows 20-26 with a NW/N wind 5-15mph and chills in the teens.