7:00pm
Overview
There is a strong low pressure system over the Central Plains and Midwest that is moving toward the Great Lakes region. This low has a cold front stretched south, along the Mississippi River valley and into the SE U.S. A second, weaker low is over Canada (just north of Montana). A warm front is stretched south, into the Northern Plains.
Discussion
The western edge of a low pressure system over the Midwest is affecting SE North Dakota. Accumulations from this system will be low as it continues to move away from our area. The rest of our state will be focusing on a much weaker low to our North & West. A warm front to our West will move into the Dakotas overnight with a chance for scattered snow, followed by slightly warmer air. Temps tomorrow will be a little higher than today, ranging from the upper 20s through the lower to mid 30s. The quiet weather pattern that we are in now will not change much during the next couple of days. A few weak fronts will move through the area causing some ups and downs with temps and the chance for some light scattered snow through the end of the week.
On a different note, through the last couple of days high temperatures have been running several degrees warmer than model guidance and forecast temps. This may be due to our snowpack being mostly melted. Nevertheless, I am not anticipating much change with this current temperature pattern.
A weak warm front will move through Western, ND tonight followed by a weak low & cold front moving through the state on Wednesday. This low impact system will lead to a little more warming tomorrow with a chance for scattered snow and low accumulations. By Thursday we will see temps on either side of 30 once again. Late this week a second warm front and chance for scattered snow will pass through Western ND resulting in some scattered light snow and even warmer temps going into the weekend. By Friday & Saturday, daytime highs could be well above average and mild. Some of the long-range model guidance is pointing to another round of 40s & 50s going into this Super Bowl weekend. Most of the guidance is not that warm. However, given the lack of snow on the ground and our recent trend of temps running above model guidance, I have adjusted temperatures up by a few degrees through most of the 7day planner.
Through the rest of tonight & Wednesday
On a different note, through the last couple of days high temperatures have been running several degrees warmer than model guidance and forecast temps. This may be due to our snowpack being mostly melted. Nevertheless, I am not anticipating much change with this current temperature pattern.
A weak warm front will move through Western, ND tonight followed by a weak low & cold front moving through the state on Wednesday. This low impact system will lead to a little more warming tomorrow with a chance for scattered snow and low accumulations. By Thursday we will see temps on either side of 30 once again. Late this week a second warm front and chance for scattered snow will pass through Western ND resulting in some scattered light snow and even warmer temps going into the weekend. By Friday & Saturday, daytime highs could be well above average and mild. Some of the long-range model guidance is pointing to another round of 40s & 50s going into this Super Bowl weekend. Most of the guidance is not that warm. However, given the lack of snow on the ground and our recent trend of temps running above model guidance, I have adjusted temperatures up by a few degrees through most of the 7day planner.
Through the rest of tonight & Wednesday
Expect continued increasing clouds as a warm front moves into the area from the West. This front will bring a chance for scattered flurries & light snow. Temperatures will continue to fall through the 20s and bottom out in the teens. The second half of this system will move through the area tomorrow & tomorrow night. This means that after we reach our high temperature, expect continued cloudy skies with another round of scattered snow as a low moves South & SE through the state. Not much accumulation (mostly < 1") is expected with this weak system as it moves through the area. Temps will climb into the lower to mid 30s tomorrow with a light to moderate wind swinging around to the West.
7day planner
Through the rest of the work week, a couple of weak systems will move through the Dakotas (Tonight-Wed Night & Thursday Night-Friday) scattered snow could bring only light accumulations to Western, ND. The best chance for significant totals will be with a stronger system Sunday/Monday. In the meantime, temps will remain unseasonably warm with highs climbing through the 30s and into the 40s Friday through Sunday after slightly cooler temps Thursday.
TONIGHT...Increasing clouds with a chance for scattered flurries/light snow. Lows 14-23. NE/West wind 2-10mph. Chills in the single digits & teens.
WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy skies with warming temps and a chance for scattered light snow, late. South/West wind 5-15mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Gradually clearing skies and cool in the wake of a weak system. Lows on either side of 20. West/NW wind 2-10mph. Chills in the teens.
THURSDAY...Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with increasing cover, late. Highs in the upper 20s and into the 30s. West/SE wind 2-12mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for scattered light snow with a weak warm front. Lows 17-24. Light SE winds.
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