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Thursday, February 4, 2016

Thursday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview
There is a low pressure system over the Carolinas that is associated with a cold front continuing to move over the Atlantic Ocean. Over the Great Lakes region a second (weak) low is moving toward the NE U.S and away from our area. Over the Northern Plains there is another low pressure system that is not very strong and moving East/SE, into the Dakotas. Elsewhere, a broad ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Southern Plains an stretched across much of the SE U.S.

Discussion
The low pressure system over the Northern Plains will continue to move through the region and across Western, ND tonight. Light scattered snow is expected and will move across our area through the morning hours. Accumulations will be light with most of the state seeing less than one inch. Isolated areas may see around an inch or more.
(4km RPM) Model Guidance Snowfall Totals

In the wake of this quick moving system, we will see tapering snow chances early tomorrow followed by clearing skies and warming. Temps tomorrow will climb quickly through the 20s & 30s. By the afternoon, lower to mid 40s are possible across much of the area.
Through the rest of the weekend, temperatures climb into a mild range Saturday with daytime highs well into the 40s. Headlines this weekend may also focus on a possible wind event Saturday & Sunday.  Friday night WAA (Warm Air Advection) will trump night time cooling with little cooling expected. WAA will continue Saturday with a moderate west wind picking up and becoming strong with winds increasing to 10-20mph in Central ND & 20-30mph in Western ND. A wind advisory may be issued for parts of our area by Saturday afternoon. Strong winds will continue after another clipper moves through the area, with a cold front Saturday night and Sunday. This cold front will bring another round of light snow followed by even stronger winds shifting around to the NW. Though snowfall accumulations will be light, strong winds will make areas of blowing snow possible. This active weather pattern will begin to settle down by the beginning of the work week.


Through the rest of tonight & Friday
Expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow tonight through the morning hours for most of our area. Light accumulation is expected with totals mainly less than 1". A few areas could see 1"-2" and some of the area will not see much accumulation at all. Lows will be in the 20s with a light to moderate wind swinging around to the North by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will bring tapering snow chances followed by clearing skies and winds becoming breezy.

7day planner
We will see scattered light snow tonight followed by clearing skies, warmer temps and light accumulations. Friday temps warm into the 30s & 40s with in & out clouds. Saturday & Sunday winds will pick up and become strong in parts of the area with possible wind advisories and blowing snow for some. Saturday night expect increasing clouds with a chance for rain/snow through Sunday. Winds will start to calm down by Monday with temps falling into a more normal range through the early work week.

TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for scattered snow as a warm front moves through the state. Lows 20-27. South winds 2-12mph. 40% chance for snow. < 1" of new snow expected.
FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy skies with tapering snow chances followed by gradually clearing skies. Highs 34-42. SW/NW wind 10-20mph G28. 30% chance for early snow.
FRIDAY NIGHT...Continued clearing revealing fair to partly cloudy skies and a cool feel. Lows 18-25. West/SW wind 2-12mph.
SATURDAY...Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and mild. Expect increasing clouds and a chance for rain becoming a wintry mix as temps fall through the evening. Highs 43-52. SW/West wind 10-22mph. 30% chance for rain/mix.
SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy skies & breezy with a chance for wintry mix becoming snow as a front moves through the area. Lows 32-26. Moderate to strong NW wind becoming gusty.


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