8:45pm
Overview
There is a low pressure system over the upper- Midwest with a cold front stretched south, through the Ohio & Mississippi River valleys. In advance of this front, developing thunderstorms have been (and will continue) prompting a series of Watches & Warnings including (but not limited to) suspected tornadic super-cells. Elsewhere a weak piece of energy is moving out of the Northern Plains and dissipating as it moves toward the Great Lakes Region. A 3rd low is developing over Colorado and a 4th low is moving over Northern California from the Pacific Ocean.
There is a low pressure system over the upper- Midwest with a cold front stretched south, through the Ohio & Mississippi River valleys. In advance of this front, developing thunderstorms have been (and will continue) prompting a series of Watches & Warnings including (but not limited to) suspected tornadic super-cells. Elsewhere a weak piece of energy is moving out of the Northern Plains and dissipating as it moves toward the Great Lakes Region. A 3rd low is developing over Colorado and a 4th low is moving over Northern California from the Pacific Ocean.
Discussion
As a weak piece of energy continues to move East and into the upper- Midwest, we will gradually see its effects diminish. The next couple of days will bring a mixture of sunshine & cloud cover with a light to moderate wind that will be variable, day by day. The next significant feature that will change our weather pattern will be a cold front Friday night through Saturday.
A low pressure system that is moving inland over the Pacific coastline will continue moving East & redevelop on the lee side of the Rockies (early Friday morning), over Wyoming. This system will then move ENE through the Northern Plains (Christmas Day) and into the Midwest by Saturday afternoon. The Dakotas will see higher snow chances as this system moves through the Plains (Friday afternoon through Friday Night). Friday afternoon, snow chances will start to rise (West to East) as this low moves into South Dakota. Snow chances will begin to taper off after Noon, Saturday.
As of Wednesday evening, this next event will mostly impact the southern half of our state. Highest accumulations will be in SE North Dakota and most of our viewing area will see below 2" of new snow. Some model runs are bringing snowfall accumulations as high as 3"-4" for areas South of I-94 in ND. The in-house model (RPM 4km & 12km) models are the ones really bringing totals higher. Keep in mind, these higher numbers are outliers, but some of the long range models were pointing to higher numbers like these a few days ago. As of right now, I will keep numbers below 2" for most of our area with higher accumulations south of I-94 and highest accumulations in Southeast, ND. Lower accumulations are expected further North of the Interstate. All in told, at this point, it looks like this next system will be more of a nuisance snow and shovelable for some.
As a weak piece of energy continues to move East and into the upper- Midwest, we will gradually see its effects diminish. The next couple of days will bring a mixture of sunshine & cloud cover with a light to moderate wind that will be variable, day by day. The next significant feature that will change our weather pattern will be a cold front Friday night through Saturday.
A low pressure system that is moving inland over the Pacific coastline will continue moving East & redevelop on the lee side of the Rockies (early Friday morning), over Wyoming. This system will then move ENE through the Northern Plains (Christmas Day) and into the Midwest by Saturday afternoon. The Dakotas will see higher snow chances as this system moves through the Plains (Friday afternoon through Friday Night). Friday afternoon, snow chances will start to rise (West to East) as this low moves into South Dakota. Snow chances will begin to taper off after Noon, Saturday.
Snowfall Accumulation Forecast
In-house model (RPM 4km -> 12km) through Saturday Evening
As of Wednesday evening, this next event will mostly impact the southern half of our state. Highest accumulations will be in SE North Dakota and most of our viewing area will see below 2" of new snow. Some model runs are bringing snowfall accumulations as high as 3"-4" for areas South of I-94 in ND. The in-house model (RPM 4km & 12km) models are the ones really bringing totals higher. Keep in mind, these higher numbers are outliers, but some of the long range models were pointing to higher numbers like these a few days ago. As of right now, I will keep numbers below 2" for most of our area with higher accumulations south of I-94 and highest accumulations in Southeast, ND. Lower accumulations are expected further North of the Interstate. All in told, at this point, it looks like this next system will be more of a nuisance snow and shovelable for some.
Through the rest of tonight & Thursday
Overnight, expect continued cloudy skies with some clearing and the chance for isolated flurries tapering off. Temps will fall into the teens with a light to moderate wind swinging around to the West. Chills will be in the single digits and below zero, for some. Through the morning, expect in & out heavy cloud cover with some clearing. Tomorrow, gradually clearing skies will continue with temps not going very far, topping out in a seasonable range with chills in the teens.
Overnight, expect continued cloudy skies with some clearing and the chance for isolated flurries tapering off. Temps will fall into the teens with a light to moderate wind swinging around to the West. Chills will be in the single digits and below zero, for some. Through the morning, expect in & out heavy cloud cover with some clearing. Tomorrow, gradually clearing skies will continue with temps not going very far, topping out in a seasonable range with chills in the teens.
7day planner
Expect in & out clouds through Thursday, followed by increasing clouds starting Thursday night and early Friday. Our next system will move West to East, just south of our area. This means that there will be a chance for snow Friday night and Saturday. In the wake of this 2nd system, temps will fall into a seasonable range and into the negative single digits by Sunday morning. A third chance for snow is on the 7day planner after the weekend wraps up.
Expect in & out clouds through Thursday, followed by increasing clouds starting Thursday night and early Friday. Our next system will move West to East, just south of our area. This means that there will be a chance for snow Friday night and Saturday. In the wake of this 2nd system, temps will fall into a seasonable range and into the negative single digits by Sunday morning. A third chance for snow is on the 7day planner after the weekend wraps up.
TONIGHT...Partly to mostly cloudy skies with gradual clearing and temps becoming cold. Lows 6-13. NW/West wind 2-10mph. Chills in the single digits & below zero.
THURSDAY...Continued clearing skies, revealing more sunshine with winds becoming variable. Highs 18-25. West/South wind 2-12mph. Chills in the teens.
CHRISTMAS EVE (Thursday Night)... Partly cloudy skies and cold. Lows 5-11. South wind 1-8mph. Chills below zero. Great flying weather for Santa as he makes his final approach to Western, ND.
CHRISTMAS DAY (Friday)... Partly to mostly cloudy skies with increasing cover and chilly temps. Highs 16-22. South/North wind 2-10mph. Chills in the teens & single digits.
FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly to mostly cloudy skies with continued increasing cover and rising snow chances. Lows in the single digits. Chills below zero. 40% chance for scattered snow.
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