Dakota Storm Center: New Year's Eve

8:00pm

Overview
A low pressure system is over the Carolinas with a cold front stretched West & SW through the SE U.S. and along the Gulf Coast. In the wake of this front, a broad ridge of high pressure is centered over the Central Plains and continuing to build. A weak piece of energy is moving across the Northern Plains & upper- Midwest.

Discussion

In the wake of a passing trough, a broad ridge of high pressure (centered to our south) will continue to build across the plains, Midwest & Mississippi/Ohio river valleys. Through the next several days, we will remain under the influence of this high. Our weather pattern will become quiet as we kick off the new year. 2016 will begin with plenty of sunshine, in & out light clouds, temps warming well into the upper 20s & lower 30s and winds becoming breezy, out of the West & NW. The next 7days bring a very low chance for any precip. This set-up does not happen too often and is due (in part) to a strengthening El Nino pattern. The latest satellite data and model guidance combine to suggest that the predicted El Nino is entering its peak stage. This means that ridging will continue to build over SW Canada, Northern Plains & the NW U.S. this ridging centered to our South & West will lead to a split flow. Most of the active weather will stretch from California, into the Gulf Coast states through the weekend.
On a different note, I have brought overnight lows up (ranging through the teens with a few lower 20s possible). Despite model guidance keeping lows in the single digits & teens, our recent pattern coupled with some upper- level clouds has prompted me to bring lows up a few degrees compared to guidance & other forecasts. Tonight will be cool before warming begins and temps climb into the lower to mid 30s (Friday) for parts of Western, ND.

Through the rest of tonight & Friday

Snow chances have fallen out of the forecast with a moderate & gusty wind out of the West. Higher wind speeds will lead to some blowing snow, possible. Otherwise, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with more clearing tomorrow morning. Overnight temperatues will dip into the mid to upper teens before Midnight. Through the early morning hours, temps will gradually warm through the seasonable range. Friday, expect plenty of sunshine with some in & out clouds, continued gusty winds and temps warming well through the 20s (topping out on either side of 30).

7day planner

Plenty of sunshine with in & out clouds, above average temperatures and low snow chances will be our headines through the weekend. Temps will range from the teens and single digits, to the upper 20s & lower 30s. A broad ridge of high pressure will begin to give way to other features through the beginning of our work week. Through Humpday (Wednesday) expect more clouds with temps settlin into a more seasonable range.

NEW YEAR'S EVE (Tonight)...Fair skies with in & out (light) clouds and temps beginning to warm through the AM hours. Lows 12-20. West & NW wind 5-15mph becoming gusty at times. Chills in the single digits & near zero.

NEW YEAR,S DAY (Friday)...Plenty of sunshine with a few clouds and mild temps. Highs 25-33. West wind 10-20mph & Gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT...Fair skies with lows in the double digits. Lows 10-17. West wind 2-10mph. Chills in the single digits.

SATURDAY...Mostly sunny skies with a few clouds and continued mild temps. Highs 26-33. W/NW wind 5-15mph. AM chills in the teens.

SATURDAY NIGHT...Fair skies with temps returning into a more seasonable range. Lows 6-12. Light NW wind. Chills in the single digits (near zero for some).