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Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Wednesday's Weather Blog

8:30pm

Overview
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes Region is continuing to move NE and away from the Dakotas. This low has a cold front stretched through the Ohio & Mississippi River valleys. A broad ridge of high pressure is anchored over the Central & Southern Plains. This high is bringing plenty of sunshine to affected areas. A secondary low is developing over Colorado and will begin to track S/SE.


Discussion
In the wake of our latest snow-maker, snowfall accumulations across the state are ranging from a Trace to 8"+. The Western third of our state saw a Trace - 2". Central, North Dakota (along a NNE line) received 3"-5" of new snow. Eastern, North Dakota saw 5"-8"+. From what I saw the highest accumulation of new snow was near Devil's Lake at 9". If anyone saw more snow from this event, let me know please. 


During the next couple of days it will begin to feel like the start of winter is less than a week away. Expect temperatures to fall as an area of cold air moves into place over our state. This pool of cooler air will help temps fall well below the seasonable range for our area (BIS avg. 5/25). Cold Air Advection (CAA) will trump daytime heating with continued significant wind speeds and it will feel like it is getting cooler throughout the day. Thursday we will also begin to see decreasing clouds, followed by wind speeds tapering off on Friday. Lows will eventually fall to near and below zero, Friday morning. By the end of the week we will see plenty of sunshine with cold temps and morning wind chills in the negative teens. Through the weekend a gradual warming trend is expected, but daytime high temps will remain below freezing through the extended planner. Saturday may be the exception. Highs will approach the freezing mark but are not expected to climb past the lower to mid 30s. There are a few chances for precip, this week. However, significant accumulation is not expected at this time. 



Through the rest of tonight & Thursday
We will begin to see gradually clearing skies as a low pressure moves away from the Dakotas and over the Great Lakes Region. A pool of cold air will also move into place. Temps will fall through tonight & Thursday as wind speeds remain moderate to strong and gusty at times. Tonight, temps will dip into the lower teens and single digits across the state with only a few flurries possible. Tomorrow, expect skies to begin clearing out with a moderate and gusty wind across the state. Temps continue falling into the single digits by sundown and it will feel like it is 10-15 degrees below the actual temp. 



7day planner
Through the rest of the week, we will see clearing skies and cooling temps. By this weekend, the approach of our next front will trigger a gradual and short-lived warming trend. Temps will remain near or below freezing and there will be a chance for some wintry precip This first front is not expected to yield much, if any accumulation. The beginning of the work week will bring in & out clouds, low precip chances and seasonable temps. A second (mid-week) front will bring another round for snow. This second front looks like it will also yield little to no accumulation. Both of these fronts are in the extended forecast and I am still open to changing the accumulation projections. As always, I will nail down some numbers when we get closer to the event. 


TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy skies with temps falling well into the teens, tapering snow chances and some clearing. Lows 7-16. NW wind 10-22mph gusty at times. 10% chance for snow.

THURSDAY...Partly to mostly cloudy skies with continued clearing and temps falling through the seasonable range. Highs 17-23. NW wind 10-22mph. Chills in the teens and single digits. 

THURSDAY NIGHT...Fair to partly cloudy skies and cold. Lows -2 to 5. Light to moderate wind out of the NW becoming variable. Chills in the negative teens.

FRIDAY...Plenty of sunshine with unseasonably cool temps. Highs 13-20. NW/SW wind 5-15mph. Chills in the single digits.

FRIDAY NIGHT...Fair to partly cloudy skies and cold. Lows in the single digits. Chills below zero.


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