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Thursday, March 31, 2016

Thursday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview
There is a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region with a cold front stretched south. This system will continue to move toward the Atlantic Coastline with a likely chance for rain and risk for severe weather. A second and much weaker low is over of the Dakotas and moving south.



Discussion
Across the area, today we started out with mostly cloudy skies and have continued to see scattered rain/snow showers. There has been some clearing through the day with in & out clouds. Precip chances will remain in play through tonight with gusty winds. Daytime highs were in a seasonable range with temps topping out in the 40s.

A weak low pressure system is over the Dakotas and continuing to move south. This system is part of a series of clippers that has been moving through the Northern Plains during the past couple of days. We have been seeing off/on precip chances with scattered snow/rain showers moving through the state. We will continue see this hit & miss rain/ snow before chances taper off during the morning hours. By sunrise, there will be a few lingering flurries. As this system fizzles out, we will see gradually clearing skies with temperatures falling through the 30s and well into the 20s. Parts of our area that see clearing earlier during the night and will even have temps falling into the teens. Add in a continued moderate to strong wind out of the NW, and it will feel 10-15 degrees cooler than it really is. So, chills will fall into the teens and single digits. Friday we will see in & out clouds, followed by more clearing. Saturday will bring plenty of sunshine and Sunday there will be a slight chance for scattered showers. For most of our area, little to no snow accumulation is expected. However, some of us will see up to 1” and 1”-3” is possible in a few areas.
48 hr Snowfall Totals (4km_RPM) in house Model Guidance

Headlines include a series of weak systems that will wrap up as we go into the weekend. We will continue to see scattered rain and snow showers move through the state, tonight. Tomorrow will bring more sunshine with in & out clouds before skies clear out more, this weekend. Also, winds will remain a little breezy during the next couple of days.
 
Through the rest of tonight & Friday
Overnight we will continue to see scattered rain/snow showers with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will fall through the 30s and into the 20s with winds calming down a bit. Even though winds begin to die down, it will remain breezy. Tomorrow morning, expect tapering snow chances with gradually clearing skies. Temperatures will be in a seasonable range through the day with winds becoming gusty at times.
 
7day planner
After tonight's rain/snow chances, we will see our weather pattern calm down as we go into the weekend. Saturday & Sunday will bring plenty of sunshine with warming temps and low rain chances. Upper 50s & 60s are expected and it will be a little breezy at times. The beginning of the work week will bring increasing clouds and our next chance for precip will be toward the middle of the work week as another system approaches the area
 
Tonight, weak clipper will move through the area tonight, bringing another round of scattered light mix/snow showers. Lows 17-27 with a NW wind 5-15mph and chills in the teens. 60% chance for precip.


Friday we will see partly cloudy skies with in & out cover and winds will remain breezy. We will continue to see gradually clearing skies with a pleasant feel. Highs 46-56 with a North/West wind 15-25mph.
 
Friday night, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with in & out cover and a cool feel. Lows 24-33 with a NW wind 10-20mph and calming. Chills will be in the teens & 20s with a 10% chance for precip.
 
Saturday, we will see plenty of sunshine with in & out light clouds and warming temps. Highs 55-64 and pleasantly warm with a NW/SW wind 5-15mph.

Saturday night, fair to partly cloudy skies and a mild feel. Lows 35-42 with a SW wind 2-12mph.




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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Wednesday's Weather Blog


9:00pm

There is a Wind Advisory in effect for parts of Southwest North Dakota from 3am to 6pm (mdt) Thursday. Areas include Slope, Hettinger, Bowman & Adams Counties.
Late tonight, through tomorrow afternoon, sustained NW winds of 35mph with gusts near 50 are expected. Travel may become difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Also, working on elevated structures will be hazardous.
 


Overview
There is a strong low pressure system over the Midwest with a cold front stretched South, along the Mississippi River valley. There is a risk for severe weather associated with this system. This system will continue to move East & NE affecting the Eastern half of our nation. A secondary low is just north of the Dakotas.
 
Discussion
Today we started out with plenty of sunshine and a cool feel. This afternoon we saw increasing clouds across the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies with a little clearing at times. Temperatures were well above average again and ranged through the 50s. The warm spot on the map was Bismarck/Mandan at 60.

Across the Northern Plains, we have been seeing mostly cloudy skies with scattered light rain. There is a weak developing low pressure system to our North that will move (North to South) through the Dakotas tonight & Thursday morning. This system is a little different from most. There will not be a leading edge or 'front' with it. So, expect rising rain chances with rain transitioning to mix & snow for some. Shower activity will be off/on through the overnight hours. After Midnight, we will start to see tapering rain chances as the first wave of rain moves through the state. Tomorrow, scattered mix/snow will move through Central & Western ND. As temperatures climb well into the 40s, any snow will become mix & rain. So, those of us who do see snow, will not see much accumulation at all. The most we are looking at is a nuisance snow/mix. Through the rest of the morning, rain/snow chances will taper off again. The back side of this system will move through the Dakotas Thursday evening and overnight with another round of precip chances. The tricky part of this forecast is timing and location. This system will not be very organized and rain/snow showers will be scattered. Tomorrow, we will see off/on precip chances coupled with increasing wind speeds. Winds will be moderate to strong and very gusty for some.

All together, this passing system will move through our area during the next couple of days. We will continue to see increasing clouds with winds becoming moderate to strong and gusty. Rain/snow chances will come back into play tonight, through tomorrow night. Since precip will be scattered, expect off/on rain & snow showers. Not everyone will be highly impacted by this event.
 
Through the rest of tonight & Thursday
Expect more clouds tonight with a chance for scattered rain. There will be a lull in precip, followed by a chance for mix/snow/rain through tomorrow morning. Temperatures will not fall much and settle in the 30s with a few 20s possible. Tomorrow rain/snow chances will return with another round of scattered precip and come clearing. Temperatures will be close to average for this time of the year with a cool feel. Winds will be strong and gusty, out of the North. Overnight, we will see tapering precip chances.
 
7day planner
There will be a chance for rain, mix & snow tonight and Thursday. Winds will be breezy through the next few days. Friday & Saturday we will see clearing skies as we go into the weekend. Temperatures will climb back into the 50s & 60s after a brief cool down. After tomorrow, our next chance for precip will be at the end of the 7day planner.
 
Tonight, expect continued increasing clouds and rising precip chances. Rain will become mix & snow as temps fall to near freezing. 28-40 with a NW wind 10-20mph G30. 70% chance for precip.
 
Thursday, expect mostly cloudy skies with continued hit & miss snow/rain showers. There will be some clearing between precip. Highs 42-50 with a moderate to strong wind out of the North, 15-25 mph G35. 60% chance for precip.
 
Thursday night most of our area will see clearing, resulting in fair to partly cloudy skies and cooing temperatures. There will be some lingering snow/rain showers until skies clear out. Lows will be in the 20s with a NW wind 5-15mph and chills in the teens. 30% chance for precip.
 
Friday we will see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with continued clearing and a pleasant feel. Highs 48-56 with a NW/North wind 10-20mph.

Friday night, expect fair to partly cloudy skies with a cool feel. Lows 26-33 with a NW wind 5-15mph G20 and chills in the teens & 20s. 10% chance for precip.




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~Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger


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Monday, March 28, 2016

Monday's Weather Blog


9:00pm

Overview
There is a low pressure system over the Northeast U.S. with a cold front stretched south over the Atlantic Ocean. A Broad ridge of high pressure is anchored over much of the Eastern half of our nation, to include the Mississippi River valley and the Midwest. A low pressure system is developing over the Central & Northern Plains, on the lee side of the Rockies.

 
Discussion
Today we started off with plenty of sunshine and a cool feel. Through the day we saw increasing clouds, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies this evening. Temps climbed above the seasonable norm and into the 60s for some. An active weather pattern will soon affect our entire area.



Across the Northern Plains, there is a developing low pressure system to our Southwest (over Wyoming) that will move across the Dakotas through Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure to our East will continue to move away from our area. Closer to home we are seeing mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers to our West. Hit & miss light showers will continue through most of tonight. After Midnight this low pressure system will continue to move West to East, south of our area. This system will bring scattered rain across North Dakota,through Tuesday evening, overnight and into Wednesday morning. Showers will be scattered and not everyone will get wet. Most of the activity will be in the southern half of our viewing area. During the early morning hours Wednesday, we will see tapering rain chances followed by some short-lived clearing. We will see in & out clouds through the day on Wednesday. Expect sunshine mixed with cloud cover and a moderate to strong wind out of the North. This wind will be gusty at times. Wednesday night & Thursday, a second system will move through the Dakotas. This clipper will bring scattered rain/snow mix through our area. This mix & snow will not leave much of an accumulation at all. However, (for some) we may see road conditions become a little hazardous with only up to an inch for parts of the area affected by snow.
In house model (4km_RPM_24hr) Rain Forecast

In summary, headlines include a low pressure system to our south. We will see continued increasing clouds and some clearing during the next couple of days. Tomorrow will bring scattered rain for parts of our area. Wednesday night & Thursday, a second system will move through the Dakotas with a mixture of rain & snow.

 

Through the rest of tonight & Tuesday

Expect continued increasing clouds tonight with a chance for a few light showers. Temperatures will not fall much (into the 30s) with a light to moderate wind, out of the East. Through the day, we will start off with a few hit & miss showers, followed by continued scattered rain during the afternoon & evening hours. We will see mostly cloudy skies with some clearing and temps climbing through the 50s and even into the 60s, again. Winds tomorrow will be moderate to strong and gusty at times.

 

7day planner
Two systems will move through the Northern Plains (affecting the Dakotas) this week. Needless to say, we will see an active weather pattern through the next few days. Increasing clouds will continue tonight with some clearing through Tuesday morning. Rain chances will be on the rise with scattered showers expected, tomorrow. Wednesday will bring a lull in the rainfall with some clearing. A second system and front will move through the area Wednesday night & early Thursday with another chance for rain, becoming snow. Clearing skies and another warming trend will be expected as we wrap up the work week. 
 
Tonight, we will see increasing clouds with a cool feel and a chance for a few scattered showers. Lows will be in the 30s with a East wind 5-15mph G25.
 
Tuesday, expect continued increasing clouds with hit & miss showers through the morning & into the afternoon. Temps will climb through the 50s and into an above average range. Scattered rain will increase (South) as a low moves West to East, across the Northern Plains. Highs 55-63 with an East/NE wind 10-20mph.
 
Tuesday night, scattered rain with some wintry mix will move through our area. Precip chances will taper off after Midnight with a cool feel. Lows will be in the 30s with gusty winds at times. NE, becoming North wind 15-25mph.
 
Wednesday, we will see some clearing with temps climbing to near 50. Through the afternoon & evening, expect another round of increasing clouds with scattered rain. Highs 45-55 with a moderate to strong wind at 15-25mph that will swing around to the North.
 
Wednesday night, expect continued increasing clouds followed by rising rain chances. Rain will become mix & snow as temps fall while this second system moves through the Dakotas. Lows on either side of 30 with a NW wind 10-20mph G30.

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~Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger


6:24pm (cdt) KX Skycam Network

Peak Wind Gusts during the past 24 hours
Winds were a light to moderate and a little gusty, today.

Tuesday's Hour By Hour Forecast
Expected scattered rain with another round of above average temps.


Friday, March 25, 2016

Friday's Weather Blog


9:00pm

Overview
There is a low pressure system moving East and out of the Northern Plains. A broad ridge of high pressure is over Canada. Elsewhere, a low pressure system and front (over the SE U.S.) will continue to move toward the Atlantic coastline. There is another ridge of high pressure over much of the Eastern half of our nation.
 
Discussion
Today we saw mostly cloudy skies with scattered snow across 70% of Western ND. It was chilly with temperatures in the 20s & 30s for most of the day. Temps warmed a little more after skies began to clear out and daytime highs were in the 30s & 40s.

Across the Northern Plains there is a low pressure system that will continue to move out of the Dakotas and East, through the Midwest. In lieu of the departing low, a broad ridge of high pressure (over Canada) will extend across the Northern Plains. A stationary front to our west will hang out on the lee side of the Rockies, through the overnight hours. Tomorrow, it will transition to a warm front and move across our area Saturday night.

Closer to home snow chances have fizzled out and we are seeing partly cloudy skies with continued clearing. All of this precip will continue moving East- Southeast and away from the area. Through Easter Weekend, we will find ourselves under the influence of a ridge of high pressure. The only other features that will affect us is Saturday night's front and it will be weak. During the next couple of days, expect low chances for any precip. Temps will warm and the dry pattern that we have been in will resume. Due to lack of moisture, light to moderate winds and more unseasonably warm temperatures there may be increased fire danger through the next several days.

 
Through the rest of tonight & Friday
Expect clearing skies with temperatures cooling into a chilly range. Winds will begin to calm down and chills will be in the teens and single digits. Saturday morning, will start the weekend off with chilly conditions. However, under plenty of sunshine temperatures will gradually climb through a seasonable range.
 
7day planner
In the wake of a departing system, we will see clearing skies. Through the weekend, expect plenty of sunshine and temps climbing back into an unseasonably warm range. This warming trend will continue Easter Sunday, through the beginning of the work week. There will be another system and our next chance for precip by Wednesday & Thursday of next week.
 
Tonight, we will see clearing skies with a chilly feel. Lows will be in the teens with a light to moderate wind out of the North and chills in the teens & single digits.
 
Saturday will bring continued clearing skies early, resulting in plenty of sunshine with a few clouds. Highs 39-47 with North winds swinging around to the SW 2-12mph.
 
Saturday night, expect a chilly feel with fair to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 20s with a light SW wind and chills in the teens.
 
Easter Sunday will start off cool. Plenty of sunshine and continued warming temperatures will be the theme. Highs 54-62 with a light to moderate wind, swinging around to the Northwest.
 

Sunday night, we will see fair to partly cloudy skies with a cool feel. Lows 26-33 with a light wind out of the East and chills in the 20s.




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Thursday, March 24, 2016

Thursday's Weather Blog

9:00pm
Overview
A low pressure system continues to develop over the Northern Plains. This system will move East across the Dakotas, tomorrow. Over the Great Lakes region, a second low pressure system will continue to move East into the NE US, with a cold front that is stretched South along the Atlantic coastline. Over most of the Central & Southern Plains, a ridge of high pressure is building in the wake of a departing front.
 
Discussion
Today we saw plenty of sunshine across most of the area. Temperatures were pleasantly warm and climbed through the 50s for most Western, ND. The warm area was Central, ND with temperatures that climbed into the lower 60s. Though no records were broken, temperatures were well above average for this time of the year. Through the afternoon, we saw gradually increasing clouds with a few showers moving into the state.


Across the Northern Plains, there a low pressure system that will continue to develop over Northeast Montana. This system will move East and Southeast, through the Dakotas and over our area. Closer to home skies are mostly cloudy with increasing cover and scattered rain moving through the state. This light shower activity is hit & miss and just the beginning. Also, not all of the rain on radar has been reaching the ground this evening. As temperatures fall to near the freezing mark, some of the scattered rain may transition to a wintry mix. Through the early morning hours, expect rising rain chances as this system continues to move through the region. Through Friday, temperatures will be falling and rain/mix showers will transition to snow. Friday night we will see tapering snow chances followed by clearing skies in the wake of this passing low. Through the weekend, expect plenty of sunshine with a some passing clouds and warming temperatures. By Easter Sunday, daytime highs will be back in the 50s. Unseasonably warm temps will continue until our next system moves through the Northern Plains, next week. By the end of this event (Friday Night) only light accumulations are expected. For the most part, up to 1" will fall across most of Western ND. Parts of the area will see 1"-3" and isolated locations could see more.
Precisioncast (4km _RPM in house model) Event Totals

During the next 24 hours, a lot of changes are expected. We will see continued scattered showers and some wintry mix tonight. Tomorrow, winds will become breezy and this late week system will continue to move through the Dakotas. As temperatures fall through the 30s, rain will transition to snow with light accumulations possible.
 
Through the rest of tonight & Friday
Tonight, we will see continued increasing clouds with a chance for scattered rain and a cool feel. Through the early morning hours, expect rising rain chances. As a low pressure system moves through the area, temperatures will not warm much before falling through the 30s. We will see off/on rain, becoming snow by late Friday. Winds will be breezy and swing around to the North.
 
7day planner
In the wake of this passing system, expect clearing skies. Through the weekend, plenty of sunshine will become the theme as temps climb back into an unseasonably warm range for Easter Sunday and through the beginning of the work week. There will be another system and our next chance for precip by Wednesday & Thursday of next week.
 
Tonight, we will see increasing clouds, followed by rising chances for rain/mix showers in advance of our next system. Lows will be in the 30s with a light to moderate wind out of the SW/South.
 
Friday will bring mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain/snow showers as our next system moves through the area. Temperatures will not warm much before cooling. Highs 32-42 with a moderate wind swinging around to the North, becoming gusty at times. Chills will be in the 20s.
 
Friday night, we will see tapering chances for rain & snow, followed by clearing skies. Lows will be in the teens with a light to moderate wind out of the North and chills in the teens & single digits.
 
Saturday will bring continued clearing skies early, resulting in plenty of sunshine with a few clouds. Highs 38-46 with North winds swinging around to the SW 5-15mph.
 

Saturday night, expect a chilly feel with fair to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the 20s with a light SW wind and chills in the teens.


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Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Wednesday's Weather Blog

9:00pm

Overview
There is a low pressure system over the Central Plains that will move through the Mississippi River valley and into the Midwest. There is a risk for severe weather with this system as it continues to develop while moving East & NE. A cold front is stretched South from this low, into the Southern Plains. A stationary front is stretched North to South along the lee side of the Rocky Mountains in the Northern Plains.
 
Discussion
Today we started off with mostly cloudy skies and a chilly feel, across Western North Dakota. Through the afternoon, skies have been clearing out and parts of our area have seen temps warm into a seasonable range. After some light precip during the early morning hours, dry conditions have continued across the area. High temps were in the 30s & 40s. Under plenty of sunshine, it felt a little warmer than it actually was, this afternoon.

Across the Northern Plains, there is not much activity. There are only a few light showers over Eastern Montana. Some of this activity may work its way into Western ND. In lieu of a departing low pressure system to our South & Southeast, a ridge of high pressure over Canada will expand into the region. Tomorrow will bring continued clearing and allow temperatures to warm well into the 50s. To our West, a stationary front will transition to a warm front as our next system begins to develop just north of Montana. 
As our next system moves into the region, we will see increasing cover and rising rain chances Thursday Night through Friday. Late tomorrow, a low pressure system will redevelop on the lee side of the Rockies, along a stationary front. This stationary front will transition to a warm front and begin to move East. Thursday night, we will see hit & miss rain/mix. Some freezing rain is possible as this system moves into the Dakotas, Friday morning. Through Friday, night this low will move East & SE, across the Dakotas. The combination of CAA (Cold Air Advection) and lack of sunshine will lead to temps back near the seasonable norm. This chance for precip on Friday will bring rain & snow. By the end of this event, light accumulations will be possible across much of the state. Most of our area will see less than 1" of accumulation with 1"-2" possible for some.
In-house Model (4km_RPM) Friday will bring a chance for rain & snow.

In conclusion, we will see continued clearing skies as a broad ridge of high pressure extends over the Dakotas. Tomorrow, we will continue to see plenty of sunshine with temperatures climbing above average for this time of the year. By Thursday night and Friday, a low pressure system will roll through the Northern Plains bringing our next chance for significant precip.
 
Through the rest of tonight & Thursday
We could see a little wintry mix and snow affecting the parts of our area, tonight. It will feel chilly with a light & variable wind and chills in the teens. Clearing will continue with dry conditions and plenty of sunshine through the day, tomorrow. Daytime highs will be slightly above average and in a pleasant range. Friday will be our next significant chance for precip as a low pressure system moves through the area. We will see off/on rain, becoming snow by late Friday. Little to no accumulations are expected.
 
7day planner
Expect continued clearing skies, revealing plenty of sunshine through tomorrow. By Thursday night & Friday, our next system will move through the Northern Plains. This will bring breezy conditions, slightly cooler temps and our next chance for rain & snow. This quick moving system will clear our area Friday night. Through the weekend, expect more sunshine and a gradual warming trend that will last through Easter Sunday and into the beginning of the work week. By the middle of next week, we will see a second system and chance for precip.
 
Tonight, expect continued clearing and a chilly feel. A few light mix/snow showers may move into Western ND. Lows will be in the 20s with a light wind swinging around to the South and chills in the teens.
 
Thursday, expect plenty of sunshine with some in & out clouds and temperatures climbing into a mild range. Highs 54-62 with a light to moderate wind, swinging around to the SW and becoming a little gusty at times.
 
Thursday night, we will see increasing clouds, followed by rising chances for rain/snow showers in advance of our next system. Lows will be in the 30s with a light to moderate wind out of the South & West.
 
Friday will bring mostly cloudy skies with scattered rain/snow showers as our next system moves through the area. Temperatures will top out in the30s & 40s, before cooling with a moderate wind swinging around to the North.
 

Friday night, we will see tapering chances for rain & snow, followed by clearing skies. Lows will be in the lower 20s & teens with a light to moderate wind out of the North and chills in the teens & single digits.




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~Meteorologist Dorrell Wenninger



KX Skycam Network 5:45pm cdt